Research Methodology
How our market sizes, forecasts and segment estimates are produced — and what they are and are not.
What our market figures are
A market size in one of our reports is a modelled estimate. It is our analysis of how large a market is, built from the sources described below — not a figure published by the companies in it, by a regulator, or by a government statistics office.
We say so on every report, in answer to the question readers ask most often: the figures are the report's own estimates rather than published company or regulatory data. That is true of market sizing generally. No authority publishes the size of most of the markets we cover, which is why the research exists — but it means the number carries the assumptions behind it, and those assumptions should be visible.
Two things follow. A figure is only as good as the market definition it rests on, so each report states its own definition, base year and forecast period. And a figure is an estimate with a method behind it, so we will send you that method for any individual report on request.
Where the data comes from
Every report names its data sources in the Scope of the Report section. They fall into four kinds, and a figure we are confident in is usually supported by more than one.
Primary research
Interviews and surveys with people working in the market — operators, suppliers, distributors and buyers. This is where we test whether a number derived from published data matches what practitioners actually see.
Regulatory filings
Approvals, registrations, clinical and technical submissions, trade and customs records. Filings are slow but unusually reliable, and they anchor estimates in events that demonstrably happened.
Company reports
Annual reports, investor presentations, segment disclosures and product announcements from the companies named in each report's Companies Covered list.
Validated secondary sources
Trade association data, industry publications and government statistics, used where they can be cross-checked against at least one of the above rather than taken at face value.
How a report is built
The same five steps produce every report, which is what makes two of our reports comparable with each other.
Define the market
Fix what is being counted before counting it: which products and services are in scope, which adjacent ones are not, and at what point in the value chain revenue is recognised. Two credible firms can publish different figures for the same market and both be right, because they drew this boundary differently. Each report states its own.
Establish the base year
Build the base-year figure from the sources above. The base year is the last period for which enough real data exists to size the market rather than project it, which is why it is usually one to two years behind the publication date. Every report names its base year on the page.
Segment
Break the market down by the axes that matter for it — type, application, end user and region — so the total is the sum of parts that can each be checked, rather than a single figure that cannot.
Forecast
Project the forecast period from the base year using the drivers, restraints and trends set out in the report, expressed as a compound annual growth rate. The CAGR is an output of the model, not an assumption fed into it.
Cross-check and revise
Reconcile the segment totals against the market total, against company disclosures, and against what interviews indicated. Where they disagree, the disagreement is investigated rather than averaged away.
What every report states
These four appear on every report page, so the scope of a figure can be checked before it is used.
Study period
The base year the figures are built from, and the forecast period they are projected across.
Geographic scope
Which regions the figure covers, each analysed separately as well as in the total.
Companies covered
The companies whose disclosures and activity informed the analysis.
Segmentation
The axes the market is broken down by, so the total can be checked against its parts.
Limitations
- A forecast is not a measurement. Projections assume the drivers and restraints identified in the report continue to behave as described. A regulatory change, a withdrawal, or an entrant can invalidate a forecast that was sound when written.
- Market definitions differ between publishers. Our figure for a market may not match another firm's, and usually the reason is scope rather than error. Compare definitions before comparing numbers.
- Private markets are less visible. Where participants are privately held or disclosure is thin, the estimate rests more on primary research and modelling and less on filings, and is correspondingly less precise.
- The base year lags. Sizing a year requires that year's data to exist, so the base year is behind the publication date by design. Check both before using a figure.
Updates and revisions
Every report page shows when it was published and when it was last updated. A revision can change figures, because new filings and new interviews change what the model is built on. Where a report has not been revised since publication, the two dates are the same — which is information too, and why both are shown rather than only one.
The methodology for a specific report
This page describes how we work in general. Each report has its own market definition, sources and assumptions — use the Request Methodology button on any report, or get in touch and tell us which market you are looking at.
Or email contact@coremarketresearch.com